The Blue Site

Memo from Bush Team

Josh, as a Bush Volunteer you have received this important strategic memo direct from President Bush's chief strategist, Matthew Dowd. As you read it, one thing should be clear - this election will be very close and the President is counting on the efforts of his grassroots supporters, people like you, to make the difference.

TO: Campaign Leadership
FR: Matthew Dowd
Chief Strategist
RE: CBS/New York Times poll

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Here are a few highlights of the CBS News/New York Times poll released this morning that were largely missing in the story:

The President's job approval is rising. A majority of Americans, 51%, approve, while 42% disapprove, a net increase of 6 points from the 47% that approved and 44% that disapproved in the late February CBS News poll.

The President now leads Kerry by 3 points among registered voters, 46% to 43%. This is a net increase of 4 points since mid-February, when Kerry led by a point.

Against a possible Kerry-Edwards ticket, Bush-Cheney now leads by 2 points. A Bush-Cheney ticket leads a hypothetical Kerry-Edwards ticket among registered voters, 46% to 44%. This is a net increase of 10 points since late February, when the Kerry-Edwards ticket led by 8 points.

The President's support is also more intense than Kerry's. 76% of the President's supporters say that their mind is made up, while just 70% of Kerry's say the same.

President Bush is viewed more favorably by Americans. 43% of Americans view the President favorably, an increase of 3 points since mid-February. 39% view him unfavorably and 17% have no opinion of him.

More Americans now view John Kerry unfavorably. Kerry's favorability declined, from 37% favorable/28% unfavorable to 28% favorable/29% unfavorable, a net decrease of 10 points since the late February CBS News poll. 41% of voters have never heard of Kerry or have no opinion of him.

A majority of Americans now see Kerry as a man who only says what people want to hear. Just 33% say that Kerry says what he believes, while 57% say that he does not. On the other hand, a majority of Americans, 51%, see President Bush as a man who says what he believes.
The real story from this poll is Kerry's 10-point drop in favorability since the late February CBS News poll and President Bush's rise in the midst of months of negative attacks from the Democrats

I thought I would just post this for the numbers. I still wonder how anyone can support John Kerry, who is clearly as fake as they come...and I wonder why more people aren't demanding that he actually show up for his job in the senate...the job he's being paid for- $125, 000 isn't it? I don't recall what the current salary is. I wish I could get paid for work, even tho I never show up.
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> 1) When a CBS News poll found John Kerry leading George W.
Bush by 48 to 43 percent amongst registered voters, Dan Rather
reported it on the February 16 CBS Evening News, and when another
CBS News poll two weeks ago put Kerry up by a mere one point over
Bush, by 47 to 46 percent with registered voters, the February 28
CBS Evening News highlighted the finding. But on Monday, while the
CBSNews.com home page, for much of the afternoon and into the
evening featured the results of a new CBS News/New York Times
poll, with a headline which declared, "Bush Moves Ahead of Kerry,"
the CBS Evening News didn't utter a word about the new numbers
which put Bush up over Kerry by 46 to 43 percent with registered
voters.

Two weeks ago, the CBS Evening News emphasized how Bush's
approval rating had fallen below 50 percent, but the new poll
found his approval rating back above 50 percent -- but that too
went unmentioned Monday night.

The March 15 CBS Evening News, however, had time for full
stories on a small anti-war protest outside the White House by
family members of those in the military (see item #2 below) and
how the Bush administration supposedly gagged an official from
telling the true cost of the Medicare prescription drug
entitlement program. "Families of some of the American casualties
of the war reached out to President Bush today," Dan Rather
reported, "asking him to bring U.S. troops home." Rather soon
introduced another story: "In an election year battle over the new
Medicare prescription drug benefit, the Bush administration is now
being accused of trying to sell the program to the public in a
very misleading way. And CBS's John Roberts also has new details
tonight of allegations that the administration deliberately misled
Congress to get the kind of Medicare overhaul the President
wanted."

On Tuesday morning, CBS's The Early Show reported how the CBS
News/New York Times survey placed Bush ahead of Kerry, but not
until the 8am newscast an hour into the two-hour morning show.

"Nation's Direction Prompts Voters' Concern, Poll Finds,"
announced the headline over the Tuesday New York Times article by
Adam Nagourney and Janet Elder, which began: "George Bush and John
Kerry enter the general election at a time of growing concern
among Americans that the nation is veering in the wrong direction,
the latest New York Times/CBS News poll shows. Mr. Bush faces
unrest over his management of the economy, while the public has
doubts about Mr. Kerry's political convictions."

Not until the eighth paragraph did Nagourney and Elder get to
the head-to-head result, though they contended it showed a tie:
"The Times/CBS News poll offered the latest evidence that the race
for President was as tight as has long been predicted. Even after
two weeks in which Mr. Bush has run televised advertisements
promoting himself and attacking Mr. Kerry, and in which Mr. Kerry
has enjoyed the glow of favorable coverage that greeted his
near-sweep of Democratic primaries, the two men are effectively
tied, with 46 percent of voters saying they supported Mr. Bush and
43 percent backing Mr. Kerry."

For the March 16 New York Times story in full:
http://www.nytimes.com/2004/03/16/politics/campaign/16POLL.html

The networks routinely report poll results the night before
their print partners put them in the newspaper, and since
CBSNews.com had the results posted as its lead item all afternoon
Monday and into the early evening, the CBS Evening News producers
certainly had access to the results of the poll conducted March
10-14. "Poll: Bush Moves Ahead of Kerry" read the home page
headline at: http://www.cbsnews.com/sections/home/main100.shtml

The posting ran through the findings in the poll, including:

-- KERRY VS. BUSH: CHOICE IN NOVEMBER
(Registered voters)

John Kerry
Now: 43%
Two weeks ago: 47%

George Bush
Now: 46%
Two weeks ago: 46%

-- VIEWS OF THE CANDIDATES
(Registered voters)

Bush
Favorable: 43%
Unfavorable: 39%
Undecided/Unknown: 17%

Kerry
Favorable: 28%
Unfavorable: 29%
Undecided/Unknown: 41%

-- THE PRESIDENT'S JOB APPROVAL RATINGS
Overall
Now: 51%
Two weeks ago: 47%

For the CBSNews.com rundown of the CBS News/New York Times
poll, see:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/03/15/opinion/polls/main606465.shtml

Contrast the lack of interest, by the CBS Evening News staff,
in this latest poll compared with the previous two CBS News polls,
surveys conducted without the New York Times.

Anchor Russ Mitchell announced on the Saturday, February 28
CBS Evening News: "A new CBS News out poll out tonight, poll out
tonight, rather, puts President Bush's job approval below 50
percent for the first time. From an Iraq war high of 73 percent
last April, the President's rating has dropped steadily with the
exception of a bump after the capture of Hussein to 47 percent
now, an all-time low. As Randall Pinkston tells us, the poll has
other promising numbers for the President's Democratic
challengers."

Pinkston explained: "Gearing up for the biggest batch of votes
of the primary season, Massachusetts Senator John Kerry campaigned
in California while North Carolina Senator John Edwards stumped in
Georgia. While he trails Kerry in delegates, there was promising
news for Edwards in a new CBS News poll of likely voters."

On screen, CBS put the faces of the candidates inside graphic
circles meant to mimic campaign buttons as they cycled through the
match-ups recited by Pinkston: "If the election were held today,
Edwards would tie President Bush. Kerry would beat the President
by one percent, but if Kerry and Edwards were on the same ticket,
they would beat the Bush/Cheney team by eight points."

The specific numbers: Edwards 45 percent vs. George W. Bush 45
percent; John Kerry 47 percent vs. George W. Bush 46 percent;
Kerry/Edwards 50 percent vs. Bush/Cheney 42 percent.

That 46 to 45 split was well within the poll's three-point
margin of error.

For the CBSNews.com posting of the results of that survey:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/29/opinion/polls/main602884.shtml

A month ago, on the Monday, February 16 CBS Evening News, Dan
Rather made room for a polling update favorable to Kerry and
Democrats:
"Turning to politics in this country, the holiday honoring our
Presidents was no holiday for the presidential candidates.
President Bush was out campaigning again today in the battleground
state of Florida, his 19th trip there as President. And part of
the reason why, perhaps, is a key finding in a new CBS News poll
out tonight. It suggests Democratic Senator John Kerry at this
point is five percentage points ahead of Mr. Bush. And keep in
mind, this is a national poll that does not take into account
state-by-state electoral vote considerations. Also keep in mind,
the front-loaded Democratic primaries are still under way."

An on-screen graphic filled in the numbers with Kerry having a
48 to 43 percent lead over Bush. For the CBSNews.com posting of
the complete findings:
http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2004/02/16/opinion/polls/main600505.shtml

> 2) A small anti-war protest march by barely 200 people
across the street from the White House generated a full CBS
Evening News story on Monday night in which reporter Bob Orr
ignored the far-left political agenda of the participants as he
emphasized how they were just typical relatives of those in the
military: "These protesters -- mothers, fathers, husbands and
wives -- read the roll of America's dead, placing the names of
their loved ones in a makeshift coffin." Orr featured an interview
with one father in which Orr stressed how he was pro-war at one
time: "You weren't against the war at the outset?" Father: "No,
not at all." And Orr painted them all as potential victims of the
right-wing thought police: "Now, at the risk of having their own
patriotism questioned, families say they're mounting a critical
home front mission."

Skipped over by Orr, the political agenda of the leftist
groups which organized the protest. The home page of a group
called "Military Families Speak Out," a representative of which
Orr quoted, features a politically-loaded screed, in the form of a
letter to President Bush, from a mother whose son was killed in
Iraq:
"You inherited peace and prosperity and created murder,
mayhem, and massive debt....While we who have lost our loved ones
have only tears to fill the empty space where love and laughter
lived, you and your Halliburton cronies have found the oil wells
and will undoubtedly keep your blood stained gains."

Rather set up the March 15 story, as taken down by MRC analyst
Brad Wilmouth: "Families of some of the American casualties of the
war reached out to President Bush today, asking him to bring U.S.
troops home. CBS's Bob Orr reports the families marched from the
Walter Reed Army Medical Center, where severely-wounded soldiers
are treated, to the White House."

Orr began: "They marched silently in a somber procession
carrying black wreathes to commemorate those lost in a war they no
longer support. Outside the White House, these protesters --
mothers, fathers, husbands and wives -- read the roll of America's
dead, placing the names of their loved ones in a makeshift coffin.
One of the names belonged to Lila Lipscomb's son, Michael
Pedersen, killed last April when his helicopter went down in a
firefight....While military families rarely speak out, these
protesters accuse the President of trying to sanitize the war by
declining to attend a single military funeral and by preventing
the public from doing flag-draped coffins as they are returned to
the US. Parents of some of the 3000 plus wounded have also had
enough. Pat and Jerome Gunn's son, Jason, survived a roadside bomb
last November. While he's still recovering from shrapnel wounds,
Jason's now been ordered back to Iraq. You weren't against the war
at the outset?"
Jerome Gunn, father of U.S. Soldier: "No, not at all."
Orr to Gunn: "In fact, you called yourself a hawk."
Gunn: "Basically, yeah."
Orr: "But how do you feel now?"
Gunn: "I feel we're being misdirected. I feel that they took a
noble cause and subverted it."
Orr: "Now, at the risk of having their own patriotism
questioned, families say they're mounting a critical home front
mission."
Charlie Richardson, Military Families Speak Out: "We believe
that the most supportive thing you can do when a war is being
fought that shouldn't be fought is speak out and try to end that
war and get the troops home."
Orr concluded, over video of a podium with a sign which
declared, "Mourn the Dead. End the War": "To bring an end to a
roll call which they say is already far too long. Bob Orr, CBS
News, Washington."

The home page for Military Families Speak Out features an
angry, politically-charged from the left, letter to Bush from
Rosemarie Dietz Slavenas. An excerpt:

....You inherited peace and prosperity and created murder, mayhem,
and massive debt. According to the ongoing investigation of the
helicopter crash that took Brian's and 15 other American lives,
the Illinois National Guard aircraft were sent into the field
without basic survivability equipment, to accommodate your "shoot
and bomb first, think and investigate later" brand of foreign
policy. We don't need a trigger happy President.

Finders keepers, losers weepers. While we who have lost our loved
ones have only tears to fill the empty space where love and
laughter lived, you and your Halliburton cronies have found the
oil wells and will undoubtedly keep your blood stained gains. Our
sorrow, your gain. Brian was conscientious; someone wasn't. Brian
was faithful; someone wasn't. Brian was thoughtful; someone
wasn't. Brian was considerate; someone wasn't. Brian was truthful;
someone isn't. Brian wasn't sloppy. Someone is.

END of Excerpt

Posted by Josh at March 17, 2004 12:55 AM | TrackBack